Before we sent the game off to Batibouw, I sat down to calculate the likelihood of finding a match within your three attempts: it shouldn't be too hard or Harol would never get rid of its iPads. For calculations, I would assume a 100% perfect memory. The most interesting part here is how close people would get to that 100% perfect memory score. Are people smart? Kind of? Or are they really dumb?
I haven' t had a lot of formal statistics training, so I've largely relied on The Big Three: "simple common sense", "blatant disregard for other people's opinions" and "shameless guessing". Readers with a background in statistics: feel free to set me on the right path in the comments. I'll feel free to blatantly disregard you.
Anyway, here's what I figured:
Three turns, six cards. Rather than calculate the 'winning' percentage, I'll calculate the 'losing' percentage, and deduct from 100 %. Losing is the one route you take through the game where you don't find a match, winning is any of 3 distinct events - maybe even 5.
- Card 1: nothing to do here
- Card 2: Lucky guess chance to win. Chances to lose: 14/15
- Card 3: May be a match for one of the 2 previous ones. 12/14 it ain't though.
- Card 4: And if it ain't, there's still a lucky guess chance: 12/13
- Card 5: A match for any of the previous ones is starting to be likely, but not quite: 8/12
- Card 6: Last chance to hit a match: 10/11
So how did people do?
**** drumroll ****
Only 6% away from a perfect memory.
Good news! People are smart! Kind of!
* For those of you who care: it was an MVC app, some nice ajax, css transitions that I could afford to rely on, as it only needed to work on iPad. Who knows maybe it will be recycled for another promotion that will run online.